Many people seem to think that Zalo/VNG must be a bad business because they've lost money years after years. This is a common misconception.
One of the most important lessons that I've learned from doing Calif can be summarized in this great quote:
Cash is a fact, profit is an opinion.
I used to think the goal of any companies is to turn a profit. I learned it the hard way that this is not true. The goal is to generate cash. Posting a profit is merely a timing decision.
To survive and grow, every company must pass the following barriers in this order:
Make things people want
Sell those things, at a profit
Use the realized profit wisely
Nothing else really matters. As an employee, if your job is not closely connected to these three things, you're at risk of being let go the moment things start turning south. This is why it's important to understand how your company's business works, even if you're a technical person.
Most companies can't even get pass barrier number #1, which is the most difficult. As an employee, if your company hardly generated any cash, but your leaders aren't working on #1, it's time to find a new job.
Everyone can become a founder, but you don't have a business until you have paying customers. This is marketing and sales, which is super critical, but today I want to talk about #3.
Let's say this year your company made $1M. You can post it as a profit and pay income taxes which in the US might be up to 30%. This means you'll end up with only $700K in the bank.
This begs an obvious question: What can you do to save on taxes? There are many ways, but the best way is to reinvest the profit to grow your company. As long as your company is growing and you have enough cash to pay your liabilities, you don't need to be profitable.
Most governments encourage this tactic. The tax men always want their dues, but they also want small companies to grow to collect even more money in the future.
This means companies at early/growth stage should never post a profit, unless they can't figure out how to use the money they worked so hard to earn.
You might think spending money must be the easiest thing in the world. No, it's only easy when you spend other people's money. Wisely spending your hard earned money requires discipline and vision.
If a growing company keeps losing money years after years, it's actually a good sign that their leaders know what they're doing. Amazon didn't post any profit until a decade after its founding.
In summary, until what happened recently, Zalo/VNG was doing fine and looked like a great business. Not profitable is totally business as usual, when you are growing.
The reinvestment of corp's profit with Amazon as example is like business DD 101, nothing new here.
From investment POV, you read the balance sheet before you decide to invest in a company, short or long: to me there is no bad companies (all start with good intents), only good companies with bad balance sheets.
I guess this is a follow up to the last post. Let's dive in a bit from what I can gather:
From VNG website: https://www.vng.com.vn/news/enterprise/vng-cong-bo-bao-cao-tai-chinh-6-thang-dau-nam-2024.html
"Tính đến hết tháng 6/2024, Zalo tiếp tục ghi nhận 77 triệu người dùng hoạt động hàng tháng (MAU), tăng 2% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, và 1,9 tỷ tin nhắn gửi đi mỗi ngày, tăng 7% YoY. "
Zalo's growth is saturated, 2% MAU is like almost flat. This is still very impressive though as VN has over 100M population, give or take and they don't go outside Vietnam's market.
Of course, who would use Zalo while they have (better and more secure) options like Signal, WhatApp, Messenger, Telegram. In short, Zalo is not Tiktok, period. And if they charge fee to make revenue, users will flee.
Game and Zalopay are 2 other sectors they provide numbers with double digit growth, very high, so (hopefully) good for them. But the wording is pretty vague for Zalopay, I couldn't tell if that is QoQ or YoY. I'm no gamer but I'm pretty sure Zalopay is trailing Momo last time I checked, with double digit % gap
In general, not a good Investor Relation report you usually see published by companies in the West. The average folks dont have much visibility into the financial picture of the company.
Now let's look at the actual document they provided to the stock exchange: https://static2.vietstock.vn/data/UPCOM/2024/BCTC/VN/QUY%202/VNZ_Baocaotaichinh_6T_2024_Soatxet_Hopnhat/2_vnz_2024_9_4_b46ff7f_000__vng__lr__signedconsolidation__v__30_6_2024da_nen.pdf
With the pending investigation that rallied more than 100 law enforcement officers, I don't want to waste my time into this document, but from first glance: their debt amount is close to 85% of their total asset: 8.5K B vs 10K B (in VND). I'm sure this is a good managed company by this ratio.
I'm not shocked if later they found out VNG cooked the books or sth along the line. It happens in US too, most recent case is SMCI. Short sellers made big bucks with this ticker just a couple weeks ago.
No, from their F1 filing: more than 80% of the revenue comes from Games, with Communication (presumably Zalo) to be less than 20% . You can check page 139 on here https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1930799/000119312523219130/d302962df1.htm
One additional point regards the debt/ assets ratio (owner's equity, essentially): they have both a net negative cash flow over the past few years, with liquid assets dwindling, and the debt/assets ratio massively increasing: in 2021 Q4, total assets minus total debt was 6000K B, then 5000K B in 2022, 3000K B in 2023 and only 1700K B last quarter. In fact, last quarter there short term liabilities already exceeded their liquid (current) assets: 6600K B vs 5000K B. They are not on a good track, financial-wise
As for the topic of their books, I will just quote straight up from their F1 filing again:
> In the course of auditing our consolidated financial statements as of and for 2020, 2021 and 2022, we and our independent registered public accounting firm identified three material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting as of 2020, 2021 and 2022. The material weaknesses identified related to:
>> ineffectively designed and implemented formal period-end financial reporting policies, procedures and controls to address complex technical accounting matters in accordance with IFRS;
>> an insufficient number of financial reporting and accounting personnel with appropriate knowledge, skills and experience in the application of IFRS and SEC rules to prepare consolidated financial statements and related disclosures completely and accurately; and
>> insufficient controls over IT general controls for information systems that are relevant to the preparation of financial statements.
I would be very wary of saying they are on a good growing track, with negative profit due to reinvestment. The numbers seem to suggest otherwise