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HN's avatar

The reinvestment of corp's profit with Amazon as example is like business DD 101, nothing new here.

From investment POV, you read the balance sheet before you decide to invest in a company, short or long: to me there is no bad companies (all start with good intents), only good companies with bad balance sheets.

I guess this is a follow up to the last post. Let's dive in a bit from what I can gather:

From VNG website: https://www.vng.com.vn/news/enterprise/vng-cong-bo-bao-cao-tai-chinh-6-thang-dau-nam-2024.html

"Tính đến hết tháng 6/2024, Zalo tiếp tục ghi nhận 77 triệu người dùng hoạt động hàng tháng (MAU), tăng 2% so với cùng kỳ năm trước, và 1,9 tỷ tin nhắn gửi đi mỗi ngày, tăng 7% YoY. "

Zalo's growth is saturated, 2% MAU is like almost flat. This is still very impressive though as VN has over 100M population, give or take and they don't go outside Vietnam's market.

Of course, who would use Zalo while they have (better and more secure) options like Signal, WhatApp, Messenger, Telegram. In short, Zalo is not Tiktok, period. And if they charge fee to make revenue, users will flee.

Game and Zalopay are 2 other sectors they provide numbers with double digit growth, very high, so (hopefully) good for them. But the wording is pretty vague for Zalopay, I couldn't tell if that is QoQ or YoY. I'm no gamer but I'm pretty sure Zalopay is trailing Momo last time I checked, with double digit % gap

In general, not a good Investor Relation report you usually see published by companies in the West. The average folks dont have much visibility into the financial picture of the company.

Now let's look at the actual document they provided to the stock exchange: https://static2.vietstock.vn/data/UPCOM/2024/BCTC/VN/QUY%202/VNZ_Baocaotaichinh_6T_2024_Soatxet_Hopnhat/2_vnz_2024_9_4_b46ff7f_000__vng__lr__signedconsolidation__v__30_6_2024da_nen.pdf

With the pending investigation that rallied more than 100 law enforcement officers, I don't want to waste my time into this document, but from first glance: their debt amount is close to 85% of their total asset: 8.5K B vs 10K B (in VND). I'm sure this is a good managed company by this ratio.

I'm not shocked if later they found out VNG cooked the books or sth along the line. It happens in US too, most recent case is SMCI. Short sellers made big bucks with this ticker just a couple weeks ago.

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Nhan Ho's avatar

No, from their F1 filing: more than 80% of the revenue comes from Games, with Communication (presumably Zalo) to be less than 20% . You can check page 139 on here https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1930799/000119312523219130/d302962df1.htm

One additional point regards the debt/ assets ratio (owner's equity, essentially): they have both a net negative cash flow over the past few years, with liquid assets dwindling, and the debt/assets ratio massively increasing: in 2021 Q4, total assets minus total debt was 6000K B, then 5000K B in 2022, 3000K B in 2023 and only 1700K B last quarter. In fact, last quarter there short term liabilities already exceeded their liquid (current) assets: 6600K B vs 5000K B. They are not on a good track, financial-wise

As for the topic of their books, I will just quote straight up from their F1 filing again:

> In the course of auditing our consolidated financial statements as of and for 2020, 2021 and 2022, we and our independent registered public accounting firm identified three material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting as of 2020, 2021 and 2022. The material weaknesses identified related to:

>> ineffectively designed and implemented formal period-end financial reporting policies, procedures and controls to address complex technical accounting matters in accordance with IFRS;

>> an insufficient number of financial reporting and accounting personnel with appropriate knowledge, skills and experience in the application of IFRS and SEC rules to prepare consolidated financial statements and related disclosures completely and accurately; and

>> insufficient controls over IT general controls for information systems that are relevant to the preparation of financial statements.

I would be very wary of saying they are on a good growing track, with negative profit due to reinvestment. The numbers seem to suggest otherwise

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